The survey was conducted among 501 respondents aged 18 and over from the ultra-Orthodox community who state that they are Charedi and for proof of that fact they said they are careful to eat only strictly kosher Mehadrin and do not rely on normal kashrut.
The question: If the election were held today, would you vote?
76% of respondents replied that they intend to vote in the upcoming elections for the Knesset. Another 13% said they are still debating whether to vote. An additional 11 % responded that they do not intend to vote.
The next question: If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
According to the survey – United Torah Judaism gets 7 seats, Shas – 4 seats and Eli Yishai’s party of Yachad Ha’am Itanu gets just under one mandate.
As for the other parties: Israel Beiteinu, the Zionist camp headed by Herzog and Livni, and the party of Moshe Kahlon, did not receive even one vote in the Haredi community. On the other hand, Likud gets 0.7% of the vote, the Habayit Hayehudi gets 1.2%, and Otzma L’Yisrael led by Ben Ari gets 0.3%.
An interesting finding from the survey shows that even thought respondents were presented with all the Jewish parties running for the Knesset (except the Arab parties), 3% of respondents chose to answer that they intend to vote for another party.
Also Respondents were asked what their opinion would be if consolidation occurs among all religious parties, and they become one ultra-Orthodox party.
The summary of the data shows that the percentage of the unsure did not change and remained the same despite the union between the parties. Also unification into a single party at this time does not improve significantly voting for the united party vote among ultra-Orthodox voters.
Considering all the data shows that among all respondents, 91% intend to vote for an ultra-Orthodox party, but when the event will run a united list of all Orthodox parties, the percentage of voters for that party rises to 94.6%.
A high percentage of undecided
Another surprising poll, is that for the first time, the percentage of undecided is high in the Charedi community. When asked the question – if the election were today who would you vote? 33.9% of respondents answered that they do not know / they refuse / blank ballots / or whatever the Rabbi decides.
When we separate the percentage of undecided population into groups, the Sephardic community’s undecided percentage is 36.5%, while the percentage of undecided voters in the Hasidic community is 27.1%, and the Lithuanian public is about 23.5%. Undecided data were taken only from those who said they intended to vote.
Interestingly, the highest percentage of undecided voters is in the age range 35-55. Nearly 40% are undecided on this age. On the other hand, among young people aged 18-24, some of whom this is the first time voting, the percentage of undecided voters stands at 6.6%, but the surprising figure is that 21.7% of younger adults, are not going to vote.
The survey also found indicates that the Sephardic public has a high percentage of undecided voters, with many respondents saying their vote would ultimately be determined by what the rabbi says. Among Shas voters, it is mostly the local rabbis who will determine what happens, and some, at least at this stage, have not yet given a clear statement for whom to vote.
It is important to emphasize that the survey was conducted only among the ultra-Orthodox community. This means that the United Torah Judaism is fully utilizing the potential voter pool. But for Shas, a substantial share comes from the periphery of the religious community and traditional Jews, which means that 4-5 mandates come soley from among the Haredi public.
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