I am not an historian, decent author or a journalist, and the chances are that unless there is a link or reference to somewhere else, the perpetrator is yours truly – Renaud Sarda. I created this blog as a focal point, to arm people with arguments and facts that they can perhaps use to counter biased media reporting and anti-Israel propaganda, and to help counter (BDS) campaign. I am a Zionist/Sephardi/Jew who will fly the Israeli flag, and defend whatever Israel does.
IRISH ACTIVISTS taking part in a Gaza-bound aid flotilla on March 30th have bought a vessel that can carry 25 passengers. Sinn Féin TD Aengus Ó Snodaigh and Sinn Féin Derry City Councilor Gerry Mac Lochlainn will be on board the aid flotilla with other political figures and personalities.
A thousand people from across the world are expected be be taking part in the flotilla.
Committee members are due to meet in Madrid next week to finalise plans for the voyage.
Dr Fintan Lane of the Free Gaza Movement and the Ireland-Palestine Solidarity Campaign told The Irish Times that the boat, which is docked at a Mediterranean port, is Irish-owned.
International flotilla committee members are due to meet in Madrid next week to finalize plans for the voyage.
Shane Dillon, the skipper of one of the aid flotilla vessels stormed by Israeli commandos last May, will captain the Irish ship.
If Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak is toppled, Israel will lose one of its very few friends in a hostile neighborhood and President Barack Obama will bear a large share of the blame, Israeli pundits said on Monday.
Political commentators expressed shock at how the United States as well as its major European allies appeared to be ready to dump a staunch strategic ally of three decades, simply to conform to the current ideology of political correctness.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told ministers of the Jewish state to make no comment on the political cliffhanger in Cairo, to avoid inflaming an already explosive situation. But Israel's President Shimon Peres is not a minister.
"We always have had and still have great respect for President Mubarak," he said on Monday. He then switched to the past tense. "I don't say everything that he did was right, but he did one thing which all of us are thankful to him for: he kept the peace in the Middle East."
Newspaper columnists were far more blunt.
One comment by Aviad Pohoryles in the daily Maariv was entitled "A Bullet in the Back from Uncle Sam." It accused Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of pursuing a naive, smug, and insular diplomacy heedless of the risks.
Who is advising them, he asked, "to fuel the mob raging in the streets of Egypt and to demand the head of the person who five minutes ago was the bold ally of the president ... an almost lone voice of sanity in a Middle East?"
"The politically correct diplomacy of American presidents throughout the generations ... is painfully naive."
"The question is, do we think Obama is reliable or not," said an Israeli official, who declined to be named.
"Right now it doesn't look so. That is a question resonating across the region not just in Israel."
Writing in Haaretz, Ari Shavit said Obama had betrayed "a moderate Egyptian president who remained loyal to the United States, promoted stability and encouraged moderation."
To win popular Arab opinion, Obama was risking America's status as a superpower and reliable ally.
"Throughout Asia, Africa and South America, leaders are now looking at what is going on between Washington and Cairo. Everyone grasps the message: "America's word is worthless ... America has lost it."
Although perhaps the quoted Israelis are being slightly too generous to a despot, the larger point is very important: If Middle East leaders, especially Arab leaders, do not believe that the US is behind them anymore, then the idea of a domino effect of Arab regimes being replaced by potentially much worse Islamist regimes becomes much closer to reality.
Not only that, but if Arab leaders no longer perceive the US as protecting them, they will seek another country for them to orbit. Like, say, Iran.
No one is saying that it is easy for the US to publicly support a dictator whose country is now seemingly against him. But now the US is not acting like a leader at all.
Here is one possible idea that would be true to both democratic ideals and minimize the chances for an Islamist takeover of Egypt.
The US should pressure Mubarak to embark on a five-year program of increasing freedoms. Get rid of the "state of emergency" that Egypt has been under since 1967 and start to implement a concrete plan of action to open up Egypt to the marketplace of ideas - with a specific timetable.
Only after five years of freedom can one even hope for an electorate that can sort through the alternatives intelligently. It would also take that long for new political parties to have the chance to grow and get organized, gain supporters and money.
Then the real elections can take place, in a new, democratic Egypt, where no one is afraid that their words can get them killed.
Rushing into uncharted waters now has disaster written all over it. This is a vacuum that the US can fill if it acts skillfully and forcefully. But is there the will?
(h/t Zach N)
By Douglas Hamilton
JERUSALEM | Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:54pm EST
"The question is, do we think Obama is reliable or not," said an Israeli official, who declined to be named.
"Right now it doesn't look so. That is a question resonating across the region not just in Israel."
Writing in Haaretz, Ari Shavit said Obama had betrayed "a moderate Egyptian president who remained loyal to the United States, promoted stability and encouraged moderation."
To win popular Arab opinion, Obama was risking America's status as a superpower and reliable ally.
"Throughout Asia, Africa and South America, leaders are now looking at what is going on between Washington and Cairo. Everyone grasps the message: "America's word is worthless ... America has lost it."
(Writing by Douglas Hamilton, editing by Diana Abdallah)
Des représentants d’associations de jeunes, d’étudiants, chômeurs et internautes proposent de reprendre
les mêmes slogans qui ont été scandés en Tunisie et en Égypte à l’occasion de cette manifestation.
La Coordination nationale pour le changement et la démocratie a tenu hier sa deuxième réunion à la Maison des syndicats à Dar El-Beida (Alger). Ligue des droits de l’Homme (LADDH), partis politiques, syndicats autonomes et diverses associations de la société civile se sont rencontrées afin d’engager une dynamique de mobilisation visant à reconquérir “les espaces publics que le pouvoir a confisqués”. la LADDH, les partis politique (RCD, PST, PLG, PLD, MDS et CCDR), les syndicats autonomes (CLA, Satef, Cnapest, Cnes, Snapap) ainsi que plusieurs associations parmi lesquelles, Amnesty internationale (Alger), RAJ, SOS disparus, des représentants des étudiants, des femmes, des chômeurs ont confirmé leur adhésion à une marche pacifique à Alger. Le mouvement citoyen de Kabylie est représenté par des délégués de Béjaïa, Tizi Ouzou et Bouira. On aura remarqué aussi la présence d’un représentant du Comité national pour la liberté de la presse (CNLP) mis en place mercredi dernier et ayant lancé un appel-pétition le jour même. Malgré le ton très critique et en dépit des rares divergences sur les moyens à mettre en place pour atteindre les objectifs fixés, les participants sont arrivés au bout d’une demi-journée de débats à arrêter la date du 12 février, alors qu’elle était initialement prévue pour le 9 février, date correspondant à une journée de travail. La question d’introduire ou pas une demande d’autorisation de la marche au ministère de l’intérieur a été également discutée. Les participants ont, à l’unanimité, approuvé la proposition de M. Ali Yahia Abdenour, président d’honneur de la LADDH, à la suite de débats et d’interventions enflammés. Dans une tentative de tempérer les plus enthousiastes, il dira que “même si notre demande est refusée notre marche pacifique sera maintenue. À travers ce refus d’autorisation nous démontrerons à l’opinion publique et internationale la vraie nature de ce régime”. Prenant la parole tour à tour, les représentants des différentes organisations n’ont pas ménagé le régime en place, demandant son départ et l’instauration d’une vraie démocratie. Les représentants des étudiants et des jeunes – venus en force – ont expliqué qu’il n’existait pas de signes montrant que le régime voudrait un quelconque changement. “Le moment est venu pour réclamer haut et fort la levée de l’état d’urgence, l’ouverture du champ politique et le changement de régime”, ont-ils exigé. Même ton chez le collectif Algérie pacifiste, un groupe de jeunes qui active sur internet et qui mobilise pour des marches. Son représentant dira : “Dans la situation actuelle, on ne peut pas dissocier les revendications sociales des revendications démocratiques, si on veut arriver à un changement radical du système.” Les partis politiques, sans exception, ont appelé “à travailler main dans la main” pour arriver à la levée de l’état d’urgence et se réapproprier les espaces publics que le pouvoir a confisqués par la force. Me Fetta Sadat d’Amnesty internationale (Alger) a proposé également d’ajouter la revendication du changement de système dans la plateforme de la coordination. “Il faut réellement approfondir nos revendications car si on se contente de la levée de l’état d’urgence et un changement politique, le régime pourra procéder à des changements superficiels rien que pour nous faire taire. D’ailleurs, aujourd’hui, ils ont procédé à la libération de tous les manifestants interpellés lors des dernières émeutes. Nous voulons le départ de ce régime non du replâtrage”, a-t-elle insisté. Une intervention qui a été saluée par les jeunes qui proposent de reprendre carrément les slogans des tunisiens adoptés, aussi, par les égyptiens.
Ils proposent aussi d’utiliser la formule de “système dégage” car ce terme, qui est devenu international, est valable également pour l’Algérie. Interrogé sur l’éventuel remaniement de gouvernement et la suite de la revendication de la coordination, Me Bouchachi de la LADDH a déclaré que “même si le gouvernement a concrétisé une de nos revendications – qui est la libération des manifestants –, nous poursuivrons notre lutte pour la levée de l’état d’urgence et l’ouverture du champ politique. Nous ne voulons pas un changement au sein du régime mais le changement de régime”. À la fin d’une matinée de débats, un consensus s’est dégagé autour de la création d’un comité qui préparera les slogans de la marche pacifique qui se déroulera à Alger le 12 février prochain. La coordination appelle le peuple algérien à participer massivement à cette action.
Communiqué de la Coordination
Par : Rédaction de Liberte
La Coordination nationale pour le changement et la démocratie, réunie le vendredi 28 janvier 2011, se félicite que la dynamique créée se soit renforcée et élargie.
Elle décide :
- l’organisation d’une marche nationale pacifique à Alger le samedi 12 février 2011, pour exiger la levée de l’état d’urgence, l’ouverture du champ politique et médiatique et la libération des personnes arrêtées pour des raisons de manifestations ou de délits d’opinion,
- l’installation d’une commission technique chargée de la préparation et de l’organisation de la marche du 12 février 2011.
Elle lance un appel :
- aux jeunes, chômeurs, étudiants, avocats, journalistes et médecins, à toutes les franges de la société algérienne pour s’organiser et rejoindre la dynamique pour le changement démocratique.
- aux partis politiques, syndicats et autres associations de la société civile pour s’inscrire dans une dynamique pour le changement.
Alger, le 28 janvier 2011
Coordination nationale pour le changement démocratique: Marche à Alger le 12 février
par Z. Mehdaoui, Le Quotidien d'Oran, 29 janvier 2011
Les animateurs de la coordination nationale pour le changement démocratique, ont fixé hier, presque à l'unanimité, la date de leur marche populaire, dans la capitale, au 12 février, sous un seul mot d'ordre : «le départ du système». La date de la manifestation n'a été arrêtée définitivement qu'au terme d'âpres discussions entre les différents représentants des partis politiques, de syndicats et d'associations.
Alors que certains, à leur tête l'avocat et président d'honneur de la Ligue algérienne de défense les droits de l'Homme (LADDH), Ali Yahia Abdenour, ont soutenu mordicus l'idée de l'organisation d'une marche dans la capitale, d'autres ont défendu une autre idée, à savoir l'organisation d'une «action nationale», à travers des marches et des manifestations populaires dans les wilayas.
Les débats ont duré presque quatre heures, à l'occasion de cette deuxième réunion de la coordination nationale pour le changement démocratique; une organisation dont l'idée et la création sont l'œuvre de la LADDH, version Bouchachi, mais aussi le SNAPAP, le SATEF, le CNES et le CLA. Bouchachi, en tant que président de séance, est intervenu hier, à plusieurs reprises, pour remettre de l'ordre dans une salle transformée en «maison des syndicats» à Dar El Beida, à l'est d'Alger. En effet des clivages sont apparus, dès les premières interventions des différents animateurs de cette coordination. Il y avait hier une sorte de méfiance dans l'air puisque certains n'ont pas hésité à critiquer ouvertement des représentants de partis politiques notamment. C'est le cas du député RCD, Tahar Besbes qui a été chahuté par une partie de l'assistance qui lui demandait de démissionner d'abord de son poste au parlement, avant de prendre la parole. Même si le climat n'était pas électrique, il n'en demeure pas moins que la tension a plané durant cette réunion. Même Belaid Abrika, le représentant des Arouchs de Tizi Ouzou, a eu des difficultés quand son tour de parole est arrivé. La réunion qui devait être consacrée à la mise en place des «modalités techniques» de la marche a débordé, à plusieurs reprises. Chaque intervenant avait, en effet, sa propre vision de la lutte pour «démanteler le système» et cela a créé parfois une véritable cohue à l'intérieur de la salle.
Il a fallu, encore une fois, l'intervention, à plusieurs reprises, de maître Bouchachi pour essayer de remettre les choses dans leur contexte et souligner que ce qui unit les participants à la réunion c'est «le départ du système». Il faut savoir que près d'une trentaine de personnes, représentant chacun un parti politique, un syndicat, une association ou un mouvement citoyen sont intervenues hier, à cette réunion. Ce n'est que vers la fin, excédé semble t-il par la tournure des choses, que le président de la LADDH, a demandé à l'assistance de voter à main levée, la date fixée pour la marche. Même si des voix étaient contre l'organisation de la marche dans la capitale, l'unanimité dans la salle a voté pour la marche à Alger, le 12 février. Concernant l'itinéraire que devrait prendre la procession, les organisateurs ont décidé, hier, de laisser ce détail pour l'annoncer trois jours avant la marche. La coordination a décidé d'installer, dès aujourd'hui, un comité qui sera chargé de la logistique et du suivi. Enfin, la coordination nationale pour le changement démocratique a décidé hier, de ne pas faire de demande d'autorisation pour la marche du 12 février. «L'objectif de la marche est de casser le mur de la peur en Algérie», a déclaré, hier, Bouchachi, en soulignant que «les conditions mondiales sont aujourd'hui réunies».
Even as the Egyptian opposition to beleaguered President Hosni Mubarak is rallying around Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, a top spokesman on foreign affairs for the American Jewish community has derided ElBaradei as a "stooge of Iran."
Malcolm Hoenlein, executive vice chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations and one of the most influential Jewish voices in the United States, said ElBaradei covered up evidence of Iran's nuclear weapons program while he was head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
"He is a stooge of Iran, and I don't use the term lightly," Hoenlein said in an online recorded interview with Yeshiva World News on the Egyptian crisis. "He fronted for them, he distorted the reports."
The remarks come at a precarious moment in the Egyptian crisis, and could complicate the diplomatic balancing act not only by the United States but also by Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his first official comments on the situation on Monday and said that Israel's chief goal was to maintain "stability and security in our region."
"I remind you that the peace between Israel and Egypt has endured for over three decades, and our goal is to ensure that these relations continue," Netanyahu said.
ElBaradei, who directed the IAEA from 1997 to 2009, is popular in Europe and among many in the Middle East, but he was a thorn in the side of the Bush administration because he opposed the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, arguing there was insufficient evidence that Baghdad had weapons of mass destruction. Subsequent events vindicated ElBaradei's views.
ElBaradei pressured Iran on its nuclear program but also urged the West to engage the Islamic republic. U.S. agencies reportedly monitored his communications to see if he was colluding with Iran but came up with nothing.
German Chanceloor Angela Merkel and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a visit to the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin last year.
Thousands of former Jewish ghetto workers are still waiting to receive pensions from Germany, even though the German parliament passed a law eight years ago enshrining the payment of pensions. Now Israel is calling on Berlin to speed up the process.
Sara Cemachovic was 12 years old when the Nazis killed her parents and siblings. She then survived three work camps and two concentration camps. She can no longer stand to hear German politicians vowing to honor their responsibilities to the victims of National Socialism each year on Holocaust Remembrance Day. It fills her with rage each time, and this past Thursday, sitting in her apartment in Schaarbeek, a district of Brussels, was no different.
"The way the German authorities treat us is a disgrace," the 81-year-old says in flawless German. Seven years ago, Cemachovic applied to receive a German retirement pension. She worked as a cook for German soldiers in the ghetto of Smarhon, today part of Belarus, during the war, but has yet to receive any money. "I'm deeply disappointed," she says.
Cemachovic is just one of tens of thousands of former Jewish ghetto workers waiting for their German pensions. The Bundestag, Germany's parliament, passed its Ghetto Pension Law (ZRBG) more than eight years ago, but the country's statutory pension insurance schemes and social courts have rejected over 90 percent of applicants.
In 2009, Germany's Federal Social Court established a more generous interpretation of the law, but little has changed in practice. The German statutory pension insurance scheme for the Rhineland area, which is also responsible for Belgium and Israel, didn't even consider expediting its approval of applications after the ruling. Instead, it sent out a new round of questionnaires to be filled out, with the result that 9,000 applications haven't been processed at all and 7,000 have been put on hold. Worldwide, there are around 50,000 survivors waiting for their pensions to be approved.
Issue on Agenda For Government Talks
Around half of these applicants live in Israel, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has put the topic on the agenda for German-Israeli government consultations that started on Monday. Chancellor Angela Merkel and half her cabinet have traveled to Jerusalem for the talks.
The German government official in charge of the pension law, Andreas Storm, a state secretary in the German Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, visited Israel back in October and promised that documents pertaining to outstanding applications would be sent to Israel by mid-December. Nothing happened. In early January, Aharon Azulay, the director general responsible for pensioners' affairs in Netanyahu's office, sent Storm a reminder letter, asking him to deal with the matter "personally."
There's another point bothering the Israelis. The ZRBG stipulates that pensions are to be paid to all concerned starting in 1997. In practice, however, Germany pays only four years retroactively to those whose applications were first approved after the Federal Social Court's ruling. The statutory pension scheme cites a general clause in German social law that allows this, but many in Israel suspect the Federal Finance Ministry is simply trying to avoid high costs.
Experts estimate the German government would have to pay approximately €1.5 billion ($2 billion) more if it adhered to the ZRBG. The social court in Lübeck, northern Germany, dismissed a lawsuit on the matter in October, citing "general economic interest."
"It can't be that survivors receive less money solely for the reason that the law has been wrongly interpreted for years," said Frank-Ludwig Thiel, a Düsseldorf-based lawyer for the victims.
German Judge Helped Claimants
Israel also has raised a sensitive issue in its discussions with the German government -- the matter of Jan-Robert von Renesse. A judge at the Higher Social Court in the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Renesse, 44, has championed the interests of the former ghetto residents like no one else. Unlike his colleagues, he ruled on applicants' claims not based on anonymous questionnaires, but by traveling to Israel to meet with survivors.
Renesse also refused to accept the pension insurance authorities' practice of reaching decisions partially based on questionable sources such as the Internet encyclopedia Wikipedia. He ordered a total of around 500 outside expert opinions on these cases and 60 percent of the applications were subsequently honored. Renesse's judgments also contributed significantly to the Federal Social Court's about-face in June 2009.
These moves didn't serve Renesse's career well. Behind his back, Renesse's superior rejected evidence the judge had gathered, and in April 2010, he lost jurisdiction over ghetto pension cases. Other judges also protested when Renesse applied for a senior legal position, that as senate chairman, and the state justice ministry subsequently cancelled the application process.
"We would like the German government to honor Renesse's historical role appropriately," said one Israeli government representative.
Renesse himself is not allowed to comment to the media. Friends say his dedication to helping Holocaust survivors stems from his own family history -- his mother, Social Democratic Party politician Margot von Renesse, is the daughter of a staunch Nazi who worked as a private tutor for Propaganda Minister Josef Goebbels' children and later became adjutant to Belgian fascist leader Léon Degrelle.
One macabre side note: Degrelle's former volunteers in the Belgian arm of the Waffen-SS have received German pensions for years without a hitch. "When it comes to us survivors, though," Cemachovic says, "the German authorities will keep waiting until we're dead."
VoA News: As world leaders closely watch the turmoil in Egypt, the White House has called for “a change in the way the country works” but stopped short of saying that its president must step down.
White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Monday the U.S. advocates an “orderly transition” in Egypt. But he refused to say whether this would require the removal of President Hosni Mubarak.
Gibbs said Washington wants “meaningful negotiations” among all groups in Egypt and repeated the Obama administration's call for free and fair elections there. He added that the United States would not determine or dictate when or how change happens in Egypt.
Earlier Monday, the European Union's top diplomat urged Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to respond to the complaints of anti-government protesters and hold talks with the opposition.
Catherine Ashton said before a meeting with EU foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday that Mr. Mubarak should answer “the legitimate grievances of the Egyptian people.” She called for a immediate, “peaceful way forward” based on a dialogue with all parts of civil society.
Ashton's spokeswoman told VOA the situation in Egypt would be a priority at Monday's meeting.
Meanwhile, in Jerusalem, Middle East envoy Tony Blair said the will of the people should be expressed in “proper elections” under an atmosphere of stability.
The foreign minister of nearby Cyprus says he is confident that the Egyptian president will press ahead with reforms.
[Editor's Note: David Eisenhower forced Batista to leave Cuba, ushering in Castro. Carter forced Iran to allow the Ayatollah Khomeni back out of exile, allowing him to subvert the democratic movement. And now Obama is calling for Mubarrak to "transition." The future of US-Egyptian relations is unlikely to be as positive as they have been historically.]
Currently, Muslims make up just over 1 million of the country's population, which is expected to increase to about 1.9 million in the next two decades. Immigration is cited as the main reason behind the increase, as just this past year Muslims made up 13% of all newly arrived migrants. A flow that helped Spain reaching an incredible economic growth especially in the construction sector that accounts for 18% of the GDP. The world's Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35% in the next 20 years, according to new population projections by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life. The Islamic population is growing at a much higher rate than the rest of the world. The increase in Spain is not only due to the arrival of new Muslims in the peninsula but also from the newly converted who accounted for around 20,000 in the last 7 years. people of African descent, or specifically the Moors conquested Spain from 710 AD until the late 1400's they were in Europe as conquerors and served as a “civilizing force,”. The Moors had a tremendously positive impact on European cultural, socio-economic and political institutions. The roots of European culture can be traced back to the Moors whose civilization was not only artistic, scientific and commercial, but also incredibly tolerant of other races and cultures. Many of the Moors' cultural and intellectual influences are still in evidence today . Projections of Muslim population in Spain for the next two decades are a reminder that the roots of the Moors in al-Andalus have never faded away and the positive contribution of this community in Spanish society will continue forever.
European Council President Herman Van Rompuy (L) talks with Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Saturday. AFP photo
Turkey's deputy prime minister complained Saturday that the European Union was becoming an inward-looking "Christian club," slamming a lack of progress in his country's bid to join.
Speaking on a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos that included EU President Herman Van Rompuy, Ali Babacan said: "We always thought the EU is a big peace project ... but then the enlargement process literally stalled.
"The open-door policy is no longer there," he added.
"And one of the big themes about why Turkey cannot become a member of the European Union is because it is a Christian club. This is in our view very, very dangerous," he said.
Ankara began accession negotiations with the EU in 2005, but the process has stalled amid opposition from some member states, lack of reform in Turkey and a trade row over the divided island of Cyprus.
Several chapters remain frozen due to Turkey's refusal to open its ports to Greek Cyprus, an EU member that Ankara does not recognize owing to the island's division between its Greek and Turkish communities.
Beyond this, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have expressed opposition to Turkey's bid.
People in the Islamic world are looking closely at the EU to see whether it will open its doors to Turkey, said Babacan, also economy minister.
"Everyone is looking at what is going on. And what kind of Europe, what kind of European Union we are going to be seeing in the future is going to be of immense importance in terms of what kind of message our region gets," he said.
Turkey's EU bid received warm support from one European delegation in Davos: Sweden said it would continue to support Turkey.
Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt denied Europe is a "Christian club," saying: "In Sweden a couple of decades ago we abolished the idea of a state church. We are not in the conception that we are all of one religion.
"We have 400,000 Muslims in Sweden. For me it's not a religious cooperation the European Union; it's a set of values that is open for all world religions. We are very much in favor of a reformed Turkey's entry into the EU," he said.
It is morally good for the US to speak about support for protestors, but it is also quite dangerous. Mubarak may go, but his regime is necessary for US and Israeli security, regional stability, and keeping at bay the Islamic extremists that would rise in its place. Obama must support it.
Washington
There is no good policy for the United States regarding the uprising in Egypt, but the Obama administration may be adopting something close to the worst option. It seems to be adopting a policy that, while somewhat balanced, is pushing the Egyptian regime out of power. That situation could not be more dangerous and might be the biggest disaster for the region and Western interests since the Iranian revolution three decades ago.
Experts and news media seem to be overwhelmingly optimistic, just as they generally were in Iran’s case. Wishful thinking is to some extent replacing serious analysis. Indeed, the alternative outcome is barely presented: This could lead to an Islamist Egypt, if not now, then in several years.
There are two basic possibilities: the regime will stabilize (with or without President Hosni Mubarak), or power will be up for grabs. Here are the precedents for the latter situation:
Remember the Iranian revolution of 1979, when all sorts of people poured out into the streets to demand freedom? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now president.
Remember the Beirut Spring of 2005 when people poured out into the streets to demand freedom? Hezbollah is now running Lebanon.
Remember the democracy and free elections among the Palestinians in 2006? Hamas is now running the Gaza Strip.
Remember democracy in Algeria? Tens of thousands of people were killed in the ensuing civil war that begin in 1991 and endured over a decade.
It doesn’t have to be that way, but the precedents are pretty daunting. And what did Egyptians tell the Pew pollsters recently when asked whether they liked “modernizers” or “Islamists”? Islamists: 59 percent; Modernizers: 27 percent.
But this Egyptian government has generally been a good ally of the United States, though it has let Washington down at times. Its loss of power to an anti-American government would be a tremendous defeat for the United States. Moreover, a populist and radical nationalist – much less an Islamist – government could reignite the Arab-Israeli conflict and cost tens of thousands of lives.
So the United States has a stake in the survival of the regime, if not so much of Mubarak personally, or the succession of his son, Gamal Mubarak, now reported to have fled to Britain. This means that US policy should put an emphasis on the regime’s survival. And this regime might be better off without the Mubaraks, since it can argue that it is making a fresh start and will gain political capital from getting rid of the hated dictator.
On the other hand, the United States wants to show that it supports reform and democracy, believing that this will make it more popular among the masses in the Arab world, as well as being the “right” and “American” thing to do. Also, if the revolution does win, the thought is that it is more likely to be friendly to America if the United States shows, in advance, its support for change.
This “pro-democracy” approach is based on the belief that Egypt might well produce a moderate, democratic, pro-Western state that will then be more able to resist an Islamist challenge. Perhaps the Islamists can be incorporated into this system. Perhaps, some say (and it is a very loud voice in the American mass media) that the Muslim Brotherhood isn’t really a threat at all.
Hoenlein's comments were reported Monday by 
