Muammar Gaddafi has the support of the Algerian Regime

The situation for Muammar Gaddafi holed up in Tripoli is not as hopeless as it might seem, and consequently his fall not so inexorable. He has it seems the support of the Algerian Regime (together with the mediating efforts of Hugo Chavez).

Rob Prince writes in Counter Punch:

Qaddafi has the support of at least one important regional ally, the Algerian government, which has both militarily and diplomatically thrown its full (and substantial) weight behind his effort to retain power. In so doing, it would appear that Algeria, which has long cooperated with the US and NATO on its North and Sub-Saharan Africa anti-terrorism policies, is breaking ranks to protect its regime’s very survival.

Since its independence, Algeria has been controlled by its military which lives high off the country’s oil profits at the expense of its own people. Algeria’s leaders fear that if Qaddafi falls, their hold on power will be that much more fragile. Their support of Qaddafi is very much designed to save their own skins.

                      

If  Mubarak saw the writing on the wall as Ben Ali’s little castle in Tunisia crumbled, so the Algerian military leadership understands that if Qaddafi falls, it very likely is next in line, or if not, not very far down the list. Desperate to cling to power, the Algerian government is – while offering a few political and economic concessions – essentially reorganizing the state’s substantial repressive apparatus to weather the protest storm. But in addition, it is pulling out all stops to support Qaddafi’s increasingly feeble hold on power.

Maybe it is the support of its North African oil producing ally Algeria, that has given Qaddafi that confident appearance that he can indeed – with a little help from his friends – hold out longer. An alliance of two of Africa’s most important oil producing countries is nothing to sneeze at, and could have all kinds of consequences. Should the alliance between the two tighten, and they engage in a common front oil embargo, which some news outlets speculate could happen, oil prices could jump to as high as $220 a barrel.

                       

The longer Qaddafi holds out, using his air force to bomb civilian targets, the more likely that a third party intervention becomes. Juan Cole suggests the Libyan Air Force does not amount to much, but support from Algeria may prove significant in this and other aspects of the military – as distinct from nonviolent – resolution of the crisis.

One suspects that Qaddafi will not threatened at this stage by the interest ofthe prosecutors of the ICC, and American support was as usual conditional.

http://wmmbb.wordpress.com/2011/03/04/gaddafi-and-algeria/